Rank The Following Countries In Terms Of Their Growth Prospects: Botswana, Nigeria, Thailand, Ghana, Zambia, Egypt, Libya, Singapore, Croatia

2629 words - 11 pages

Understanding International Macro Economics Assignment 1:

Understanding International Macro Economics Assignment 1:

"Rank the Following countries in terms of their growth prospects:

Botswana, Nigeria, Thailand, Ghana, Zambia, Egypt, Libya, Singapore, Croatia"

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Many wise men have been made to look foolish when attempting to forecast. Predicting levels of growth is dependent on a large number of variables that can influence a country. These may be from the environment within a country, but events in other countries can also have a great effect. Natural disasters, disease and political upheaval are almost impossible to predict but can have dramatic effects on a country.

For this paper, we will look at growth from an economic perspective. One could of course look at growth in terms of size of population political power or even physical size. One could consider growth from sociological point of view looking at the welfare in a country. Improvements in education, health, human rights and even happiness could all be considered as growth for a country. Furthermore one could also judge a society by fairness or distribution of these aspects. The Human Development Index was created by the UN to give a measurement of development which is not solely reliant on GDP. Improvements with many of these factors are correlated with GDP per capita, which along with GDP for the country as a whole is more traditionally associated as a measurement of a countries economy.

GDP is an expression of the value of the goods and services produced in a country in a given period of time- normally a year. There are of course many difficulties in measurement of GDP and how this relates to the actual value created in a country. The example of a mother staying at home with her child, compared to day care is a simple yet pertinent way of highlighting this problem. The nature of the measurement will therefore affect the performance of one country relative to another.

Nonetheless we can look at countries in an objective manner and try and assess their potential for economic growth. A country's productivity will be a function of Capital, Labour and Total factor productivity. By analysing relationship of these factors for each country, we can assess the ability for growth. We can analyse the likely effect of each of the 9 data types given to see how as an individual statistic may influence growth of an economy.

GDP per Capita

A country with a high GDP per capita can have difficulty in showing very high rates of growth. This is partially due to the effect of diminishing marginal productivity of capital. A country with a high GPD/c will have high levels of capital investment previously and therefore further capital investment will have little effect. A high GDP country will have to rely on total factor productivity to improve...

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